07 Aug, 2025
Our Football Manager expert from Out of Context FM brings you his 25/26 Premier League predictions, all the way from the title race down to the relegation battle! He also gives you his Championship predictions also for our EFL heads.
As the start of the 25/26 Premier League season draws ever closer, we thought we would get our FM expert Billy, with his wide ranging knowledge of PL squads and players to give his season predictions for the Premier League and also a quick Championship table prediction as well for our EFL diehards!
| 1. Liverpool |
| 2. Arsenal |
| 3. Man City |
| 4. Chelsea |
| 5. Aston Villa |
| 6. Newcastle |
| 7. Spurs |
| 8. Crystal Palace |
| 9. Brighton |
| 10. Man United |
| 11. Bournemouth |
| 12. Everton |
| 13. Fulham |
| 14. West Ham |
| 15. Forest |
| 16. Brentford |
| 17. Wolves |
| 18. Sunderland |
| 19. Leeds |
| 20. Burnley |
Let’s start at the bottom, where things are likely to get very nervy. Burnley to finish 20th might sound harsh, but it’s less a knock on their potential and more a reflection of the steep jump in quality they’ll need to overcome. They’ve made a couple of sensible additions but a couple of their signings have simply been last season’s loanees made permanent. Without a marquee arrival to change the complexion of their attack, they look short of the firepower or flair to survive. That said, they won’t be Derby 07/08, this will be competitive. I think all the teams at the bottom of the table will be close together.
In 19th, I’ve (painfully) got Leeds United, a call that definitely isn’t made out of bias, as I am a Leeds fan. The squad looks solid enough on paper, but glaring issues remain in the final third. The failure to land Junior Paixão leaves us light in key attacking areas, and while the signings made so far are fine, they’re not transformative. Unless a couple of big names arrive before the window shuts, it’s hard to see us scoring the goals needed to stay up. Daniel Farke also needs to prove himself at this level, and I just don’t think he is good enough to do this.
Sunderland land in 18th, which again isn’t an insult. They’ve had a strong window, Granit Xhaka adds quality and leadership, and they’ve brought in plenty of exciting young talent. But even with that, the leap from where they were last season, to staying up in the Premier League is massive. It feels like a project that’s a season too early, though I do think they’ll spring a few surprises and play with real character.
Survival goes to 17th-placed Wolves, but only just. They were already flirting with relegation danger last year, and having lost key performers like Matheus Cunha and Rayan Aït-Nouri, replacing that output won’t be easy. Their underlying numbers were concerning too, they had the lowest expected points outside of the relegated trio. The only reason they stay up in this prediction is the size of the gap between the Premier League and the promoted teams. But it’s tight.
Brentford, in 16th, are another side some have tipped for the drop. But this is Brentford… we should know better. Their recruitment is elite, and while they might lose Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa, you’d back them to pull replacements out of the Swedish second tier and somehow make it work. Their new manager’s lack of Premier League experience could be a bump in the road, but the infrastructure is too solid to collapse.
Nottingham Forest, who finished 7th last season, drop to 15th in this forecast. That’s a big fall, but it’s backed by data: they were 14th in expected points last year and struggled for consistency late in the season. The demands of balancing Europe and the Premier League, especially with a squad that hasn’t added significant depth, could take a toll. Still, keeping Morgan Gibbs-White is huge, and they’ve retained enough to stay safe.
West Ham sit in 14th, and while the squad still has plenty of Premier League nous, the loss of Mohammed Kudus puts even more pressure on Jarrod Bowen. They’ve made some decent moves, Kyle Walker-Peters and Callum Wilson on frees bring experience, but it’s hard to see where the added spark will come from. Graham Potter deserves more credit than he’s currently getting, but this will be a test of his previously incredible credentials to get them any higher.
Fulham in 13th reflects the risk of standing still in a league that never does. They finished 11th last season, and their underlying numbers screamed mid-table. But if you’re not improving in the Premier League, you’re effectively getting worse. Their squad isn’t deep enough to weather an injury crisis, and the lack of clear upgrades could cost them momentum.
Everton, up in 12th, I love their transfer business, and rumoured business this summer. The additions of Thierno Barry and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall add technical quality and legs to an otherwise blunt attack. Dewsbury-Hall in particular was a casualty of Chelsea’s bloated squad last season, but he could thrive under David Moyes. They still have limitations, but if they carry over the form they showed at the back end of 24/25, they’ll be safe, and comfortably.
Last season’s overachievers Bournemouth slot into 11th. They were sensational last year, even outperforming Manchester City in some underlying metrics per Understat. But they’ve lost two key defenders, and that’ll hurt. That said, Andoni Iraola is one of the best managers in the league, and they’ve proven that they can replace well. A slight dip, but still comfortably mid-table.
Which brings us to the most unpredictable club in the league: Manchester United. They’ve been a mess for years now, but they should improve, and so I’ve got them finishing 10th. They’ve added two of last season’s standout players from outside the top six, and are targeting Benjamin Šeško and Carlos Baleba. On paper, it’s starting to look more promising. But with the scars of a 15th-place finish still fresh, you’d be foolish to assume a full return to glory. A bounce-back, but not a revolution.
Brighton in 9th feels safe and solid. They’ve made minimal moves, but that’s never a concern with them. Lose a Joao Pedro or a Pervis Estupiñán? No problem, they’ll find an upgrade no one’s heard of. With room to manoeuvre under PSR and the club’s stellar recruitment, they’ll likely strengthen before the window shuts.
Crystal Palace, in 8th, are quietly building something special. Their FA Cup final win showed their growth, and a Conference League campaign shouldn’t derail them, they’ve got the structure and the energy to cope. Even if they lose Marc Guéhi, replacing him with someone like Ousmane Diomande would be a statement of intent. A functional, well-drilled team with a top manager, they’re finally going to finish above 12th.Now here’s where the table gets spicy.
Spurs up in 7th might raise eyebrows, especially after a 17th-place disaster last year, but this is a new-look Tottenham. Europa League winners, a refreshed squad, and the appointment of Thomas Frank, who fits this rebuild perfectly. Joao Palhinha and Mohammed Kudus are two signings made for this level, and the rest of the squad has quality that was badly misused under previous regimes.
Newcastle, in 6th, have had a quiet summer, but the reaction has been a bit over the top. This is still a very strong team with a coherent identity. Champions League football will test their depth, but with Eddie Howe in charge and a stable core, they’ll remain in the mix for Europe.
In 5th, I’ve got Aston Villa, the picture of stability. No major in-comings or outgoings, but that’s not a bad thing. Sometimes, the best business is keeping what you’ve already got. They’ve shown they belong in the top six and Unai Emery is more than capable of maintaining that level.
Chelsea take 4th, and frankly, with the money spent, they absolutely have to. Transfermarkt estimates their summer spending at £243 million, and the squad is now bursting with talent. There should be a big gap between the top three and the rest, but Chelsea should lead the chasing pack with ease. If they don’t, serious questions will be asked.Which brings us to the title race.
Manchester City finish 3rd in this prediction. That might surprise some, given their pedigree and Pep Guardiola’s presence. But they were well behind both Liverpool and Arsenal in the xG table last season, and while their summer additions look strong, they may take time to click. With married Pep back, maybe he’s a bit more zen, but the dominance of 2021–2023 looks harder to recapture.
Arsenal come 2nd… again. It’s become a bit of a meme, but it’s not a criticism, they’re a brilliant side. The recruitment has been solid, the squad is deep, and Mikel Arteta is growing every season. But in a title race this tight, being great might not be enough when someone else is just that bit better.
And that someone is Liverpool, who I have winning the league for the second year running in 1st. They were comfortably the best side last season, and they’ve only gone and strengthened again. Yes, they’re still replacing a few key players, but the in-comings look strong across the board. If anything, the gap might close slightly, but Jurgen Klopp 2.0 looks every bit as dangerous as the original.
And my Championship table if you’re interested, without the breakdown for each team:
| 1. Ipswich |
| 2. Southampton |
| 3. Birmingham |
| 4. Leicester |
| 5. Sheffield United |
| 6. Coventry |
| 7. Norwich |
| 8. West Brom |
| 9. Watford |
| 10. Swansea |
| 11. Bristol City |
| 12. Portsmouth |
| 13. Derby |
| 14. Middlesbrough |
| 15. Milwall |
| 16. QPR |
| 17. Stoke |
| 18. Preston |
| 19. Wrexham |
| 20. Blackburn |
| 21. Oxford |
| 22. Hull |
| 23. Charlton |
| 24. Sheffield Wednesday |
Now that you’ve checked out our pre-season Premier League and Championship predictions, check out some of our other pre-season prediction articles. We predicted which players to target and to avoid on every team, starting with Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea!
And we predicted our best budget Defenders, Midfielders and Forwards in FPL for the 25/26 season!
